Cluster munitions 2022 report

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Written by northsouth

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 25 August 2022

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GENEVA - Russian forces’ repeated use of cluster munitions has caused lasting harm to hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, according to this year’s global Cluster Munition Monitor report. Ukraine is the only country in the world where cluster munitions are being used today.

The report, which tracks efforts to eradicate cluster munitions by all countries, notes least 689 civilians died from cluster munition attacks between February and July. In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, Russian cluster munition attacks struck homes, city streets, and parks, as well as an outpatient clinic at a maternity hospital and a cultural center, a Human Rights Watch investigation found.

Ukrainian forces also appear to have used cluster munitions rockets on at least two occasions. The use of cluster munitions , which disperse submunitions that can maim and kill like landmines for years, is prohibited by the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions.

110 countries have ratified and 13 more have signed the Convention, and while neither Russia nor Ukraine are parties to it, the indiscriminate nature of such weapons, particularly when deployed in built-up areas, would still make their use a likely war crime under international law.

“All countries should condemn the use of these weapons under any circumstances,” says Mary Wareham , arms advocacy director at Human Rights Watch and editor of the Cluster Munition Monitor 2022. The Cluster Munition Monitor is the annual monitoring report by the Cluster Munition Coalition (CMC), a global coalition of nongovernmental organizations co-founded and chaired by Human Rights Watch.

Cluster munitions can be fired from the ground by artillery, rockets, and mortars, or dropped by aircraft. They typically open in the air, dispersing multiple bomblets or submunitions over a wide area. Many submunitions fail to explode on initial impact, leaving dangerous duds that can indiscriminately maim and kill like landmines for years, until they are cleared and destroyed.

he report will be presented to countries attending the 10th annual meeting of the Convention on Cluster Munitions at the United Nations in Geneva next week.

Global nuclear arsenals are expected to grow, SIPRI Yearbook

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Written by northsouth

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 13 June 2022

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Stockholm - The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) today launches the findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2022, which assesses the current state of armaments, disarmament and international security. A key finding is that despite a marginal decrease in the number of nuclear warheads in 2021, nuclear arsenals are expected to grow over the coming decade.

Signs that post-cold war decline in nuclear arsenals is ending

The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)—continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and although the total number of nuclear weapons declined slightly between January 2021 and January 2022 (see table below), the number will probably increase in the next decade.

Of the total inventory of an estimated 12 705 warheads at the start of 2022, about 9440 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Of those, an estimated 3732 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and around 2000—nearly all of which belonged to Russia or the USA—were kept in a state of high operational alert.

Although Russian and US total warhead inventories continued to decline in 2021, this was due to the dismantling of warheads that had been retired from military service several years ago. The number of warheads in the two countries’ useable military stockpiles remained relatively stable in 2021. Both countries’ deployed strategic nuclear forces were within the limits set by a bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty (2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, New START). Note, however, that New START does not limit total non-strategic nuclear warhead inventories.

‘There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the cold war have ended,’ said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

‘All of the nuclear-armed states are increasing or upgrading their arsenals and most are sharpening nuclear rhetoric and the role nuclear weapons play in their military strategies,’ said Wilfred Wan, Director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme. ‘This is a very worrying trend.’

Russia and the USA together possess over 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. The other seven nuclear-armed states are either developing or deploying new weapon systems, or have announced their intention to do so. China is in the middle of a substantial expansion of its nuclear weapon arsenal, which satellite images indicate includes the construction of over 300 new missile silos. Several additional nuclear warheads are thought to have been assigned to operational forces in 2021 following the delivery of new mobile launchers and a submarine.

The UK in 2021 announced its decision to increase the ceiling on its total warhead stockpile, in a reversal of decades of gradual disarmament policies. While criticizing China and Russia for lack of nuclear transparency, the UK also announced that it would no longer publicly disclose figures for the country’s operational nuclear weapon stockpile, deployed warheads or deployed missiles.

In early 2021 France officially launched a programme to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, and both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2021. Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal.

North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. While North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions or long-range ballistic missile tests during 2021, SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled up to 20 warheads, and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 45–55 warheads.

‘If the nuclear-armed states take no immediate and concrete action on disarmament, then the global inventory of nuclear warheads could soon begin to increase for the first time since the cold war,’ said Matt Korda, Associate Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Senior Research Associate with the FAS Nuclear Information Project.

Mixed signals from nuclear diplomacy

There were several landmarks in nuclear diplomacy during the past year. These included the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in January 2021, having received the required 50 state ratifications; the extension for five years of New START, the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement between the world’s two leading nuclear powers; and the start of talks on the USA rejoining, and Iran returning to compliance with, the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

During 2021, the nuclear-armed permanent members (P5) of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the UK and the USA—worked on a joint statement that they issued on 3 January 2022, affirming that ‘nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’. They also reaffirmed their commitment to complying with non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control agreements and pledges as well as their obligations under the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and pursuing the goal of a world without nuclear weapons.

Despite this, all P5 members continue to expand or modernize their nuclear arsenals and appear to be increasing the salience of nuclear weapons in their military strategies. Russia has even made open threats about possible nuclear weapon use in the context of the war in Ukraine. Bilateral Russia–USA strategic stability talks have stalled because of the war, and none of the other nuclear-armed states are pursuing arms control negotiations. Moreover, the P5 members have voiced opposition to the TPNW, and the JCPOA negotiations have not yet reached a resolution.

‘Although there were some significant gains in both nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament in the past year, the risk of nuclear weapons being used seems higher now than at any time since the height of the cold war,’ said SIPRI Director Dan Smith.

A mixed outlook for global security and stability

The 53rd edition of the SIPRI Yearbook reveals both negative and some hopeful developments in 2021.

‘Relations between the world’s great powers have deteriorated further at a time when humanity and the planet face an array of profound and pressing common challenges that can only be addressed by international cooperation,’ said Stefan Löfven, Chair of the SIPRI Governing Board.

In addition to its detailed coverage of nuclear arms control and non-proliferation issues, the latest edition of the SIPRI Yearbook includes insight on developments in conventional arms control in 2021; regional overviews of armed conflicts and conflict management; in-depth data and discussion on military expenditure, international arms transfers and arms production; and comprehensive coverage of efforts to counter chemical and biological security threats.

Global arms trade falls slightly, but imports to Europe, East Asia rise

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Written by northsouth

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 14 March 2022

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STOCKHOLM - International transfers of major arms saw a slight drop between 2012–16 and 2017–21 (–4.6 per cent). Nevertheless, exports by the United States and France increased substantially, as did imports to states in Europe (+19 per cent), East Asia (+20 per cent) and Oceania (+59 per cent). Transfers to the Middle East remained high, while those to Africa and the Americas decreased, according to new data on global arms transfers published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

‘The small decrease in global arms transfers masks large variations between regional trends,’ said Pieter D. Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘Whereas there were some positive developments, including South American arms imports reaching their lowest level in 50 years, increasing or continuing high rates of weapons imports to places like Europe, East Asia, Oceania and the Middle East contributed to worrying arms build-ups.’

Europe sees biggest growth in arms imports

The biggest growth in arms imports among world regions occurred in Europe. In 2017–21 imports of major arms by European states were 19 per cent higher than in 2012–16 and accounted for 13 per cent of global arms transfers. The largest arms importers in Europe were the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands. Other European states are also expected to increase their arms imports significantly over the coming decade, having recently placed large orders for major arms, in particular combat aircraft from the USA. Despite armed conflict in eastern Ukraine throughout 2017–21, the country’s imports of major arms in the period were very limited.

‘The severe deterioration in relations between most European states and Russia was an important driver of growth in European arms imports, especially for states that cannot meet all their requirements through their national arms industries,’ said Pieter D. Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘Arms transfers also play an important role in transatlantic security relationships.’

Asia and Oceania imports down, but rising in some subregions

Asia and Oceania remained the largest importing region for major arms, receiving 43 per cent of global transfers in 2017–21, and six states in the region were among the 10 largest importers globally: India, Australia, China, South Korea, Pakistan and Japan. Transfers to the region overall fell slightly (–4.7 per cent), but there was wide variation among different subregions.

Arms imports to South Asia fell by 21 per cent and those to South East Asia fell by 24 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. In the same period, arms imports to Oceania grew by 59 per cent, due to a 62 per cent increase in Australia’s imports, and imports to East Asia rose by 20 per cent.

‘Tensions between China and many states in Asia and Oceania are the main driver of arms imports in the region,’ said Siemon T. Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘These tensions are also a major factor in US arms transfers to the region. The USA remains the largest supplier to Asia and Oceania, as arms exports are an important element of US foreign policy aimed at China.’

Indian arms imports decreased by 21 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. However, it remained the largest importer globally and India is planning large-scale arms imports in the next few years from several suppliers.

Middle Eastern arms imports level off after sharp increase

Middle Eastern states imported 2.8 per cent more arms in 2017–21 than they did in 2012–16. This followed an 86 per cent increase in arms imports to the region between 2007–11 and 2012–16.

As the conflict in Yemen continued and tensions between Iran and other states in the region remained high, arms imports played an important role in security developments in the Gulf. Arms imports by Saudi Arabia—the world’s second largest arms importer—increased by 27 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. Qatar’s arms imports grew by 227 per cent, propelling it from the 22nd largest arms importer to the 6th largest. In contrast, arms imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) shrank by 41 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21, taking it from the third largest to the ninth largest arms importer globally. All three of these states and Kuwait have placed large orders for major arms planned for delivery in the coming years.

US, French arms exports rise; Russian, Chinese and German arms exports fall

Arms exports by the USA grew by 14 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21, increasing its global share from 32 per cent to 39 per cent. Arms exports by the USA in 2017–21 were more than double (108 per cent more) those of the second largest exporter, Russia. The Middle East accounted for 43 per cent of US arms transfers. Especially important for the growth of US arms exports was an increase in deliveries of major arms to Saudi Arabia, by 106 per cent.

Russia, which accounted for 19 per cent of all exports of major arms in 2017–21, saw its exports shrink by 26 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. The overall decrease in Russia’s arms exports was almost entirely due to a fall in arms deliveries to two recipients: India and Viet Nam. However, several large arms deliveries from Russia to India are expected in the coming years.

France accounted for 11 per cent of global arms exports in 2017–21, making it the third largest arms exporter. France increased its arms exports by 59 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21.

In 2017–21 China was the fourth largest arms exporter and Germany the fifth largest. Arms exports by China decreased by 31 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21, while Germany’s arms exports fell by 19 per cent.

Other notable developments:

- Italian arms exports represented 3.1 per cent of the global total in 2017–21 and were 16 per cent higher than in 2012–16.

- Arms exports by the United Kingdom dropped by 41 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. The UK accounted for 2.9 per cent of total arms exports in 2017–21.

- Between 2012–16 and 2017–21 there were overall decreases in arms imports by states in three world regions: the Americas (–36 per cent), Africa (–34 per cent), and Asia and Oceania (–4.7 per cent).

- In 2017–21 arms imports by South American states were lower than in any five-year period in the past half century. Brazil is the only state in South America with substantial deliveries of arms pending.

- Myanmar’s arms imports fell by 32 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21. It accounted for 0.6 per cent of global arms transfers in 2017–21.

- In 2017–21 the five largest arms importers in sub-Saharan Africa were Angola, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mali and Botswana.

- Taiwan’s arms imports shrank by 68 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21, but are scheduled to increase significantly in the coming years.

- Israeli arms imports increased by 19 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21.

- Egypt's arms imports grew by 73 per cent between 2012–16 and 2017–21, making it the third largest arms importer globally.