Role of nuclear weapons grows as geopolitical relations deteriorate, SIPRI Yearbook

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Written by Super User

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 17 June 2024

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STOCKHOLM - The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has launched its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security.

Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2024 are that the number and types of nuclear weapons in development have increased as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence.

Nuclear arsenals being strengthened around the world

The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel—continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12 121 warheads in January 2024, about 9585 were in military stockpiles for potential use (see the table below). An estimated 3904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft—60 more than in January 2023—and the rest were in central storage. Around 2100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, but for the first time China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.

‘While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as cold war-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,’ said SIPRI Director Dan Smith. ‘This trend seems likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning.’

India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, something Russia, France, the UK, the USA and—more recently—China already have. This would enable a rapid potential increase in deployed warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets.

Russia and the USA together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their respective military stockpiles (i.e. useable warheads) seem to have remained relatively stable in 2023, although Russia is estimated to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements have increased in saliency.

Notably, there were several public claims made in 2023 that Russia had deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, although there is no conclusive visual evidence that the actual deployment of warheads has taken place.

In addition to their military stockpiles, Russia and the USA each hold more than 1200 warheads previously retired from military service, which they are gradually dismantling.

SIPRI’s estimate of the size of China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and it is expected to keep growing. For the first time, China may also now be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade, although its stockpile of nuclear warheads is still expected to remain much smaller than the stockpiles of either of those two countries.

‘China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,’ said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). ‘But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.’

Although the UK is not thought to have increased its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2023, its warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future as a result of the British government’s announcement in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The government also said it would no longer publicly disclose its quantities of nuclear weapons, deployed warheads or deployed missiles.

In 2023 France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems.

India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023. Both India and Pakistan continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2023. While Pakistan remains the main focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets throughout China.

North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads, both significant increases over the estimates for January 2023. While North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions in 2023, it appears to have carried out its first test of a short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo. It also completed the development of at least two types of land-attack cruise missile (LACM) designed to deliver nuclear weapons.

‘Like several other nuclear-armed states, North Korea is putting new emphasis on developing its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons,’ said Matt Korda, Associate Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Senior Research Fellow for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. ‘Accordingly, there is a growing concern that North Korea might intend to use these weapons very early in a conflict.’

Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal and appears to be upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona.

Tensions over Ukraine and Gaza wars further weaken nuclear diplomacy

Nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy suffered more major setbacks in 2023. In February 2023 Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START)—the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces. As a countermeasure, the USA has also suspended sharing and publication of treaty data.

In November Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing ‘an imbalance’ with the USA, which has failed to ratify the treaty since it opened for signature in 1996. However, Russia confirmed that it would remain a signatory and would continue to participate in the work of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). Meanwhile, Russia has continued to make threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons in the context of Western support for Ukraine. In May 2024 Russia carried out tactical nuclear weapon drills close to the Ukrainian border.

‘We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the cold war,’ said Wilfred Wan, Director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme. ‘It is hard to believe that barely two years have passed since the leaders of the five largest nuclear-armed states jointly reaffirmed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.’

An informal agreement reached between Iran and the USA in June 2023 seemed to temporarily de-escalate tensions between the two countries, which had intensified over Iran’s military support to Russian forces in Ukraine. However, the start of the Israel–Hamas war in October upended the agreement, with proxy attacks by Iran-backed groups on US forces in Iraq and Syria apparently ending Iranian–US diplomatic efforts. The war also undermined efforts to engage Israel in the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction.

More positively, the June 2023 visit to Beijing by the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, seems to have increased space for dialogue between China and the USA on a range of issues, potentially including arms control. Later in the year the two sides agreed to resume military-to-military communication.

Global security and stability in increasing peril

The 55th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook analyses the continuing deterioration of global security over the past year. The impacts of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are visible in almost every aspect of the issues connected to armaments, disarmament and international security examined in the Yearbook. Beyond these two wars—which took centre stage in global news reporting, diplomatic energy and discussion of international politics alike—armed conflicts were active in another 50 states in 2023. Fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan saw millions of people displaced, and conflict flared up again in Myanmar in the final months of 2023. Armed criminal gangs were a major security concern in some Central and South American states, notably leading to the effective collapse of the state in Haiti during 2023 and into 2024.

‘We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history,’ said Dan Smith, SIPRI Director. ‘There are numerous sources of instability—political rivalries, economic inequalities, ecological disruption, an accelerating arms race. The abyss is beckoning and it is time for the great powers to step back and reflect. Preferably together.’

In addition to the usual detailed coverage of nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation issues, the SIPRI Yearbook presents data and analysis on developments in world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, multilateral peace operations, armed conflicts and more. Special sections in SIPRI Yearbook 2024 explore the role of Russian private military and security companies in conflicts; efforts to reduce the peace and security risks related to artificial intelligence, outer space and cyberspace; and issues around the protection of civilians in the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

About the SIPRI Yearbook

The SIPRI Yearbook is a compendium of cutting-edge information and analysis on developments in armaments, disarmament and international security. Three major SIPRI Yearbook 2024 data sets were pre-launched in 2023–24: total arms sales by the top 100 arms-producing companies (December 2023), international arms transfers (March 2024) and world military expenditure (April 2024). The SIPRI Yearbook is published by Oxford University Press.

To download SIPRI’s yearbook 2024, visit: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2024?utm_source=phpList&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=For+Immediate+Release%3A+Role+of+nuclear+weapons+grows+as+geopolitical+relations+deteriorate%E2%80%94new+SIPRI+Yearbook+out+now&utm_content=HTML

Which countries have nuclear weapons?

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Written by Super User

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 20 April 2024

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HARRIET SINCLAIR

LONDON - Tensions in the Middle East have reached boiling point in recent weeks as Iran fired an unprecedented barrage of missiles at Israel on 13 April, which responded with its own reported missile attack.

Neither country reported any injuries, with Israel confirming that the 300 missiles and drones launched by Iran had been shot down, and Iranian state media saying in turn that Israel had launched three drones that had been taken down by its air defences.

Iran has said it would not retaliate immediately over the attack as the "shadow war" that had long played out between the countries was pushed into the open, prompting fears of a larger-scale regional war.

But a senior commander for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards did warn on Thursday that Iran could review its "nuclear doctrine" if threats from Israel continue - despite Iran currently having no nuclear weapons.

As the situation in the Middle East becomes increasingly fraught, Yahoo News explains which countries have nuclear weapons.

Which countries have nuclear weapons?

Nine countries currently have nuclear weapons – some legally and some illegally – with an estimated 12,100 warheads between them as of early-2024, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Five nations are officially recognised as possessing nuclear arms by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

These are the UK, China, France, the United States and Russia.

But there are also two nations that hold nuclear weapons – India and Pakistan.

Israel and North Korea hold nuclear weapons illegally and the only ones that refuse to sign the non-proliferation treaty.

Russia has the most nuclear weapons followed by the US.

Iran does not have nuclear weapons, however, its store of enriched uranium stood at 5.5 tonnes in February, according to the UN nuclear watchdog. Its uranium is currently enriched to 60% and it theoretically has enough material for two nuclear weapons if enrichment continues, Reuters reports.

Number of nuclear weapons per country

While the official number of nuclear weapons tends to be a state secret, the FAS estimates that Russia has 5,580, as of 2024.

This is closely followed by the US, which has an estimated 5,044.

In fact, the FAS says that approximately 88% of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the US.

Meanwhile, no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security.

That's why China, which comes in third, has just 500 in comparison to the thousands owned by Russia and the US.

France follows with an estimated 290 warheads, then the UK with an estimated 225.

How the number of nuclear weapons are distributed around the world

Out of the countries that hold nuclear weapons illegally, the FAS says Pakistan has around 170, India has around 170, Israel has around 90 and North Korea around 50.

But these totals also include weapons that are still intact but are queued for dismantlement.

Israel does not publicly acknowledge it has nuclear weapons.

As countries commit to nuclear disarmament, the number of weapons that remain in their military stockpiles is decreasing.

These stockpile numbers can also be broken down into different categories depending on whether the weapons are deployed on launchers at military bases or are being kept in reserve.

According to the FAS, the entire "military stockpile" includes all active and inactive warheads that are in the custody of the military and earmarked for use by commissioned delivery vehicles.

Meanwhile, "deployed strategic warheads" are those deployed on intercontinental missiles and at heavy bomber bases.

Currently, there are 9,583 nuclear warheads in military stockpiles (that can be used for missiles, aircraft, ships and submarines).

Of these, 3,880 are deployed, while there are 2,000 "high alert" warheads that belong to the US, Russia, Britain and France, which can be deployed at short notice.

"Deployed nonstrategic warheads" are those deployed on bases with operational short-range delivery systems.

Most warheads in the world are in reserve or "non-deployed", meaning they are in storage rather than deployed at military bases.

For Israel, Pakistan, India and North Korea, their entire military stockpiles are non-deployed, according to the FAS – meaning none are currently deployed.

Only two nuclear weapons have ever been used in warfare since they were first developed by the US during the Second World War.

The US dropped two bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, killing almost 200,000 people in total.

Both Russia and the US continued to build up their stockpile of nuclear weapons during the Cold War as tensions escalated.

The latest nation to build nuclear weapons is North Korea, which carried out its first nuclear test in 2006.

The FAS estimates there have been over 2,000 nuclear tests conducted to date.

Since the Cold War, the global nuclear stockpile has massively diminished - down from around 70,300 in 1986 to around 12,100 in 2024.

Arms sales revenue delayed by production challenges and backlogs

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Written by northsouth

Category: Defence & Security

Published: 04 December 2023

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Stockholm - Revenues from sales of arms and military services by the 100 largest companies in the industry totalled $597 billion in 2022, 3.5 per cent less than 2021 in real terms, even as demand rose sharply, according to new data released today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), available at www.sipri.org.

The decrease was chiefly the result of falling arms revenues among major companies in the United States. Revenues increased substantially in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East. Outstanding orders and a surge in new contracts suggest that global arms revenues could rise significantly in the next few years.

Demand for weapons grows but production lags behind

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and geopolitical tensions around the world fuelled a strong increase in demand for weapons and military equipment in 2022. However, despite receiving new orders, many US and European arms companies could not significantly ramp up production capacity because of labour shortages, soaring costs and supply chain disruptions that were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. In addition, countries placed new orders late in the year and the time lag between orders and production meant that the surge in demand was not reflected in these companies’ 2022 revenues.

‘Many arms companies faced obstacles in adjusting to production for high-intensity warfare,’ said Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. ‘However, new contracts were signed, notably for ammunition, which could be expected to translate into higher revenue in 2023 and beyond.’

In contrast to the major US and European suppliers, companies in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East saw their arms revenues grow significantly in 2022, demonstrating their ability to respond to increased demand within a shorter time frame. This was especially true in countries where companies maintain responsive ‘ever-warm’ manufacturing capabilities, such as Israel and South Korea, and those where companies tend to rely on short supply chains.

Arms revenues fall in USA due to production challenges

The arms revenues of the 42 US companies in the Top 100 fell by 7.9 per cent to $302 billion in 2022. They accounted for 51 per cent of the total arms revenue of the Top 100. Of the 42 US companies, 32 recorded a fall in year-on-year arms revenue, most commonly citing ongoing supply chain issues and labour shortages stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic.

‘We are beginning to see an influx of new orders linked to the war in Ukraine and some major US companies, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies, received new orders as a result,’ said Nan Tian, SIPRI Senior Researcher. ‘However, because of these companies’ existing order backlogs and difficulties in ramping up production capacity, the revenue from these orders will probably only be reflected in company accounts in two to three years’ time.’

Asia outperforms Europe on back of military modernization drives

The arms revenues of the 22 companies from Asia and Oceania listed in the ranking rose by 3.1 per cent to reach $134 billion in 2022. This was the second consecutive year where Top 100 arms revenues for Asia and Oceania were higher than those for Europe.

‘Domestic demand and reliance on local suppliers shielded Asian arms companies from supply chain disruptions in 2022,’ said Xiao Liang, a researcher with the SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. ‘Companies in China, India, Japan and Taiwan all benefited from sustained government investment in military modernization.’

The combined arms revenues of the four South Korean companies in the Top 100 fell by 0.9 per cent, primarily due to an 8.5 per cent drop recorded by the country’s biggest arms producer, Hanwha Aerospace. Two South Korean companies reported revenue growth, most notably LIG Nex1. South Korean companies are likely to see increased revenues in coming years due to a surge in booked orders after signing major arms deals with Poland and the United Arab Emirates.

Modest revenue growth in Europe as Ukraine-linked demand starts to filter through

The arms revenues of the 26 companies in the Top 100 based in Europe rose by 0.9 per cent to reach $121 billion in 2022.

‘The war in Ukraine created demand for materiel suited to a war of attrition, like ammunition and armoured vehicles. Many European producers of these items saw their revenues grow,’ said Lorenzo Scarazzato, a researcher with the SIPRI Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. ‘They included companies based in Germany, Norway and Poland. For instance, Poland’s PGZ increased its arms revenue by 14 per cent, benefiting from the accelerated military modernization programme the country is pursuing.’

Trans-European companies Airbus and KNDS were among the main sources of arms revenue growth in Europe, largely due to deliveries against long-standing orders.

Turkish companies drive significant increase in Middle Eastern arms revenue

The Middle East saw the largest percentage rise in arms revenue of any region in 2022, as all seven Middle East-based companies in the Top 100 recorded substantial growth. Their combined arms revenues of $17.9 billion marked an 11 per cent year-on-year increase. The four Turkish companies’ total arms revenues reached $5.5 billion—22 per cent more than in 2021. The aggregate arms revenues of the three Israeli companies in the ranking reached $12.4 billion in 2022, a 6.5 per cent increase compared with 2021.

‘Middle Eastern companies that specialize in less technologically sophisticated products were able to scale up production faster in response to surging demand,’ said Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, SIPRI Senior Researcher. ‘A case in point is Türkiye’s Baykar, producer of the Bayraktar TB-2 drone. Baykar entered the Top 100 for the first time after its arms revenue rose by 94 per cent, the fastest growth rate of any company in the ranking.’

Other notable developments

- In 2022 China accounted for the second largest share of combined Top 100 arms revenues by country, at 18 per cent. The aggregate arms revenues of the eight Chinese arms companies in the ranking increased by 2.7 per cent to $108 billion.

- The arms revenues of the seven companies in the United Kingdom listed in the Top 100 grew by 2.6 per cent to reach $41.8 billion, or 7.0 per cent of the total.

- Due to a lack of data, only two Russian companies were included in the Top 100 for 2022. Their combined arms revenues fell by 12 per cent to $20.8 billion. Transparency among Russian companies continues to decline. Despite being a holding entity with no direct manufacturing capacity, Rostec is included in the 2022 ranking as a proxy for the companies it controls.

- The only Ukrainian company in the Top 100, UkrOboronProm, saw a 10 per cent real-terms drop in its arms revenue to $1.3 billion. Although its arms revenue increased in nominal terms, this was more than offset by the country’s high inflation.

For the full report, visit: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-11/fs_2312_top_100_2022.pdf