BRUSSELS - Europe’s share of people aged 85 years and older will triple by the end of the century, rising from three to nearly 10 percent of the total population, according to a report published by the Bruegel think-tank.
The most obvious area that will be affected by an ageing population is pension policy. The old-age dependency ratio, measures the number of people aged 65 and more relative to the working-age population (aged 20-64). This ratio is increasing in the EU, projected to increase from 36 percent in 2022 to 55 percent in 2050 and 65 percent in 2100 1 . While there were approximately 2.7 workers per elderly person in the EU in 2022, the number will fall to approximately 1.5 in 2100.
More generally, Europe’s dependency ratio, which measures the number of people over 65 against the working-age population, is set to nearly triple from 36 to 65 percent in the next century, according to the report.
But the increase in very old people in particular will put even more pressure on Europe’s care sectors, which are already facing shortages, the report authors say, arguing for more investment in long-term care.
The report comes after Europe’s ageing population has been a hot topic for EU policymakers for a while, with leaders increasingly alarmed about the sustainability of the bloc’s pensions, healthcare systems, and public finances, in the face of persistent labour market shortages and rising care needs and shrinking workforce.
Examples of recent EU initiatives to combat labour shortages include the European Year of Skills, aimed at “upskilling” the European workforce, and the introduction of an EU talent pool, to attract more legal migration to fill up vacancies.
However, with the political climate having turned firmly against migration, it is unlikely that imported labour will solve Europe’s demographic challenges. Moreover, the focus on “upskilling” has been criticised for failing to address the challenging working conditions, especially in the care sector.
Gender equality
But the increase of the very oldest age bracket desperately requires attention, David Pinkus, co-author of the report, told the EUobserver. “It brings its own set of policy challenges,” Pinkus said, adding that the sustainability of pensions and the supply of long term care were “two sides of the same coin.”
With Europe’s working population set to stagnate, due to a combination of lower fertility rates and insufficient migration, the report emphasised the need for more public investment into the sector.
“Increasing the supply of long term care will be crucial, given the demographic trajectory,” Pinkus said, arguing that this was not just a question of fighting labour shortages through “reskilling” the workforce. “The goal must be to make the sector more attractive,” Pinkus noted, acknowledging the tough working conditions in the sector.
But increasing the supply of long term care is a gender-equality issue as well, the report argues.
According to estimates, up to 80 percent of long term care is informal, which is predominantly done by women. “Relying on such an important share of informal care puts women at a disadvantage,” said Pinkus, pointing at the impact on female participation of the labour force.
As childlessness among the elderly increases, and children move further away from their parents, informal care networks are likely to prove insufficient in any case, the report says, recommending that apart from investing in preventative healthcare measures, long term care networks simply need to be prepared to face higher demand.
Nonetheless, Pinkus emphasised that in the end, Europe’s demographic change should not be regarded as a bad thing. “This is the result of increased longevity among the elderly. This is fundamentally positive.”
To download the report, visit: https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/beyond-retirement-closer-look-very-old
