Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 24 February 2022

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KYIV - Russian forces fired missiles at several Ukrainian cities and landed troops on its south coast on Thursday, officials and media said, after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation in the east.

Shortly after Putin spoke in a televised address on Russian state TV, explosions could be heard in the pre-dawn quiet of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Gunfire rattled near the capital's main airport, the Interfax news agency said.

"Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

"This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now."

US President Joe Biden said his prayers were with the people of Ukraine "as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces".

Russia has been demanding an end to NATO's eastward expansion.

Putin said he had authorised the special military operation in breakaway areas of eastern Ukraine after Russia had been left with no choice but to defend itself against what he said were threats emanating from modern Ukraine.

"Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine," Putin said. "All responsibility for bloodshed will be on the conscience of the ruling regime in Ukraine."

The full scope of the Russian military operation was not immediately clear but Putin said: "Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything by force."

Speaking as the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting in New York, Putin said he had ordered Russian forces to protect the people and appealed to the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms.

Ukraine's military command centres in Kyiv and the city of Kharkiv in the northeast had been struck by missiles, a Ukrainian news site cited an official as saying, while Russian troops had landed in the southern port cities of Odessa and Mariupol, Interfax Ukraine reported.

Explosions also rocked the breakaway eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk and civilian aircraft were warned away from the region.

Hours earlier, pro-Russian separatists issued a plea to Moscow for help to stop alleged Ukrainian aggression - claims the United States dismissed as Russian propaganda.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday said Moscow had approved an offensive and had not replied to an invitation for talks.

Putin repeated his position that NATO expansion to include Ukraine was unacceptable and said Russia had been left with no choice but to defend itself against what he said were threats emanating from Ukraine.

'DECISIVE WAY'

Biden said Putin had chosen a premeditated war that would bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering.

"Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable," he said.

He said he would announce further sanctions on Russia on Thursday, in addition to financial measures imposed this week.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg strongly condemned Russia's "reckless and unprovoked attack" on Ukraine and said NATO allies would meet to tackle the consequences of Moscow's "aggressive actions".

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a last-minute plea to Putin to stop the war "in the name of humanity', after the Russian leader announced the military operation.

"President Putin, in the name of humanity, bring your troops back to Russia," Guterres said, speaking after the Security Council meeting.

The consequences of a war would be devastating for Ukraine and far-reaching for the global economy, he said.

Russia's UN envoy said his country was not being aggressive against the Ukrainian people but against the "junta" in Kyiv.

Ukraine earlier restricted civilian flights in its airspace due to "potential hazard", hours after a conflict zone monitor warned airlines should stop overflights over the risk of an unintended shooting down or cyber attack.

Convoys of military equipment including nine tanks were seen moving towards Donetsk earlier on Wednesday from the direction of the Russian border, a Reuters witness reported.

Shelling had intensified since Monday when Putin recognised two separatist regions as independent and ordered the deployment of what he called peacekeepers, a move the West called the start of an invasion.

The Ukrainian government on Wednesday also announced compulsory military service for all men of fighting age.

Western countries and Japan imposed sanctions on Russian banks and individuals but have held off their toughest measures until an invasion began.

The United States stepped up the pressure on Wednesday by imposing penalties on the Russian firm building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and its corporate officers.

Germany on Tuesday froze approvals for the pipeline, which has been built but was not yet in operation, amid concerns it could allow Moscow to weaponize energy supplies to Europe.

How the invasion of Ukraine might play out

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 22 February 2022

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LONDON - The deployment of Russian troops in two separatist-controlled states in eastern Ukraine has prompted international condemnation and calls for devastating economic sanctions against Moscow, writes the London-based publication The Week.

Vladimir Putin yesterday signed a decree recognising the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk following a pre-recorded national security council meeting in which ministers and officials were invited to voice their support for the move on national television.

“The pained faces of some in the room suggested that not everyone was happy with the direction of travel,” The Economist said. But the allies of the Russian president “unanimously hewed” to what he “wanted to hear”, paving the way for aggression that “voids” the Minsk agreements and may “set off a spiral of sanctions and war”.

The US was quick to respond to the arrival of Russian troops with “targeted sanctions”, Reuters reported, banning “new investment, trade and financing” in Luhansk and Donetsk. Further measures were announced by the UK and EU this afternoon

Here are the scenarios for how Putin’s invasion could play out.

1- Strong sanctions

The US was today “coordinating with allies and will announce new sanctions against Russia”, Reuters reported. It has already imposed a financial package targeting investment into the two occupied regions.

Heavy sanctions were placed on Russia after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. At the time, the “ruble took a tumble” and “economic growth faltered”, said The Telegraph. “But a prudent macroeconomic and monetary policy helped the Kremlin to stay afloat”, in doing so “setting aside billions from its oil revenues for a rainy-day fund”.

Boris Johnson this afternoon announced sanctions against five of Russia’s biggest banks and three Kremlin-linked billionaires. The EU also published its “sanctions proposal”, BBC Europe editor Katya Adler said, which will target “anyone involved in the decision” to recognise the independence of the two states controlled since 2014 by Russian-backed proxies.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that the government in Berlin has halted the approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, stating: “The situation today is fundamentally different and therefore, in light of recent events, we must also reassess this situation with regard to Nord Stream 2.”

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine, said that any sanctions must be “strong”, warning that “if the West’s response is simply rhetorical, Putin will smell weakness and escalation is likely”.

He continued: “The ideal sanctions target should be Nord Stream 2… If not that, the United States must sanction at least one major Russian bank, as well as some of the high-profile figures around the Russian president.”

The West must also “make clear that far more punishing sanctions are to come if Moscow launches a major new offensive”, he said. This should include the threat of “expulsion from the SWIFT financial system” that would essentially end Russia’s ability to send and receive money from abroad.

A key difficulty for EU member states is the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy. This means that “as the West weighs how to sanction” the Kremlin, the EU must sidestep the “high risk of helping fund the Kremlin’s war machine through payments for oil and gas”, Politico reported.

2- Military entrenchment

Once sanctions are agreed, the immediate concern will turn to Russia’s entrenchment in Luhansk and Donetsk. Having assembled the largest ground force on European soil since the 1940s, Moscow has indicated that it is prepared for an escalation in hostilities.

“For many weeks, the Kremlin has refrained from making a clear argument to justify war,” The Economist said. But after Putin’s speech yesterday in which he “questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine’s independence”, the “propaganda offensive now appears to be in full throttle with claims of genocide and Nato aggression merged into one call to action”.

Putin has claimed that the troops are “peacekeepers”, sent in to ensure that the Ukrainian military does not launch an offensive to reclaim rebel-controlled territory. But President Volodymyr Zelensky sounded a bullish tone in an address to the nation yesterday afternoon, stating: “We are on our land, we are not afraid of anyone or anything.”

Boris Johnson this morning said that Putin had “broken international law” and “repudiated the Minsk agreements” by sending troops into Luhansk and Donetsk. But forcing Russian troops back across the border will prove to be a challenge.

3- Hybrid warfare

Another possibility now that Putin has boots on the ground is an expansion of the type of “hybrid warfare” that last week took down the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s website.

Ukrainian officials have warned that they have “seen online warnings that hackers were preparing to launch major attacks on government agencies, banks and the defence sector”, euronews reported.

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace yesterday told the Commons that the government is ready to use “offensive cyber capability” if necessary.

Thomas S. Warrick, a senior adviser with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said: “Putin has used disinformation and false-flag operations to justify military action to the Russian people”. But, he continued, yesterday’s “overt military move” was “against territory that Kyiv does not control”.

Luhansk and Donetsk have been held by Russian-backed proxies since 2014, meaning that the “next round in hybrid warfare” could be “diplomacy, to try to get real concessions from Ukraine and the West without a real invasion”, he added.

4- Bear backs down

Should the West “hit the right Russian pain points”, it is possible that Putin could be forced into leaving Luhansk and Donetsk, said Arun Iyer, a non-resident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defense practice.

Writing on the Atlantic Council, he said: “One of the many options could be action against a notable Russian oligarch inside Putin’s circle of influence.” This could turn the screws on the Russian president, especially if its “intensity” is enough to “get serious attention from his elite enablers”.

The Western response should attempt to “make being a Russian oligarch essentially worthless anyplace other than Russia – unless they convince Putin to act within international norms”, Iyer said.

According to The Telegraph: “Russian oligarchs and Kremlin-linked organisations have begun intense lobbying of the Foreign Office to avoid sanctions.” A sudden “flurry of correspondence from individuals and companies” somewhat “undermines claims that the Kremlin is unfazed by the prospect of economic measures”.

An ally of Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told the paper that making Russia’s elite “squeal” is a key element of her plan for dealing with Moscow. “The Kremlin says it doesn’t care about sanctions. But that’s clearly not the view of Russian oligarchs and businesses.”

For Western leaders, “all sectors will be on the table, from energy to defence to banking, chemicals and technology”, they added. “It will be a surgical sanctions strike and very painful for Russia. It’s a clear deterrence.”

5- War in Europe

If deterrence and diplomacy fail, Russia could push beyond the line of contact between Luhansk and Donetsk to try to claim further swathes of Ukrainian territory. Joe Biden has warned “they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people”.

“Russia could mobilise troops in Crimea, Belarus and around Ukraine’s eastern borders,” the BBC reported. “In theory Russia could try to sweep across Ukraine from the east, north and south and try to remove its democratically elected government.”

But a full invasion of Ukraine, a country of 44 million people, would be no easy task. “Ukraine has built up its armed forces in recent years and Russia would face a hostile population,” the BBC said.

Nato has spent the last few weeks plying Ukraine with “lethal aid” in preparation for this eventuality, Sky News said. But Moscow still “has more military firepower than Ukraine – covering the land, air and sea”.

Prince Andrew settles sex abuse case

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 15 February 2022

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LONDON - Prince Andrew and Virginia Giuffre have reached an out-of-court settlement in the civil sexual abuse claim filed in the US.

According to a letter submitted to the US District Court, written jointly by Giuffre’s lawyer David Boies and the Duke of York’s legal representatives, the two parties have “reached a settlement in principle”.

The out-of-court deal will mean Prince Andrew will not face a public trial over allegations that he sexually abused Giuffre when she was a teenager. The Duke of York has always strenuously denied the allegations.

Instead, he will make a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”, according to the letter. The prince intends to demonstrate his regret for his association with Jeffrey Epstein by supporting the “fight against the evils of sex trafficking, and by supporting its victims”.

What could he have faced?

The Duke of York was facing a civil trial in the US for sexual assault allegations after failing to have the lawsuit thrown out of court in mid-January.

His lawyers had called for the dismissal of the case, brought by Giuffre, citing a deal that she signed with convicted paedophile Epstein in 2009. But a New York judge rejected the motion to have the case thrown out “in all respects”.

That meant that Prince Andrew was facing “the prospect of giving evidence in a high-profile trial” that would have required him to divulge “aspects of his personal life in open court”, reported The Guardian.

In a settlement with Epstein, Giuffre was paid $500,000 (£370,000) to end her claims against the billionaire property tycoon and anyone connected to him who could be described as a “potential defendant” – including royalty.

Prince Andrew’s lawyers had tried to argue that he was a “potential defendant” under the terms of the agreement and that therefore the case brought against him by Guiffre should be dismissed. Guiffre’s lawyers argued that only the parties of the settlement agreement could benefit from it, and not a "third party”.

In his decision, Judge Lewis A. Kaplan said that it was far from clear whether Prince Andrew was covered by the agreement, describing it as “ambiguous”.

As The Times explained, the deal settled a complaint which alleged that Epstein “committed violations of federal laws, including sex trafficking”. But Judge Kaplan wrote in his judgment that “it nowhere alleges that this defendant [Prince Andrew] committed any”.

Privacy protected

Judge Kaplan’s decision left Prince Andrew facing “big decisions”, said the BBC’s royal correspondent, Sean Coughlan. “Trying to block the case using the deal between the dead paedophile Epstein and Giuffre was already heavy with reputational risks.”

Any expert witnesses for the trial would have had to have been disclosed by 13 May, according to The Guardian, while rebuttal witnesses would have been disclosed a month later.