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Putin's Victory Day speech a sign he won't start nuclear war, experts
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MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin's Victory Day speech can be interpreted as an "encouraging" sign he is stepping back from the catastrophic consequences of launching nuclear weapons, experts have said.
Western officials had warned prior to the speech that the Russian president could use the opportunity to instigate a mass mobilisation of Russian troops; declare a global war on Nazis; or even raise the threat of using nuclear weapons.
Putin and Kremlin officials have issued a number of nuclear threats in the two months since invading Ukraine, but the Russian leader stopped short of raising further tensions.
Experts described the speech as a "professional performance" that showed no "potential craziness" that Western officials have been concerned about.
Former UK ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton told Sky News Putin had recently shown "disturbing signs" of "losing it", in his speeches surrounding the war, but the speech today was "coherent" and a "very professional performance".
He added the speech had: "Pushed all the right patriotic buttons in the Russian political atmosphere".
He added: "It is rather encouraging that it leaves me with the feeling that we are dealing with a rational individual there with whom hopefully in time it will be possible to do a sensible deal to bring this whole mess to an end."
In the speech, Putin accused the West of planning to invade the Donbas region in the south of Ukraine.
He said: "In December last year, we proposed the conclusion of an agreement on security guarantees. Russia called on the West to enter an honest dialogue, in search of reasonable compromise solutions, to take each other’s interests into account. It was all in vain.
"Nato countries did not want to listen to us, meaning that they in fact had entirely different plans, and we saw this.
"Openly, preparations were underway for another punitive operation in Donbas, the invasion of our historical lands, including Crimea.
"In Kyiv, they announced the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons, the Nato bloc began actively taking military control of territories adjacent to ours.
"As such, an absolutely unacceptable threat to us was systematically created, and moreover directly on our borders."
Lord Dannatt, a retired British Army general, added: "The Cold War and the nuclear standoff during the Cold War worked because both sides were rational. Both sides understood the catastrophic consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. So they didn't do it.
"It's the irrationality of the potential craziness of Putin that is the real worry, particularly if he's not well. Now, he looks pretty healthy to me this morning."
UN races to rescue civilians from Mariupol plant
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By ELENA BECATOROS and JON GAMBRELL
ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — The United Nations raced Friday to rescue more civilians from the tunnels under a besieged steel plant in Mariupol and the city at large, even as fighters holed up at the sprawling complex made their last stand to prevent Moscow’s complete takeover of the strategic port.
The fight for the last Ukrainian stronghold in a city reduced to ruins by the Russian onslaught appeared increasingly desperate amid growing speculation that President Vladimir Putin wants to finish the battle for Mariupol so he can present a triumph to the Russian people in time for Monday’s Victory Day, the biggest patriotic holiday on the Russian calendar.
Some 2,000 Ukrainian fighters, by Russia’s most recent estimate, are holed up in the vast maze of tunnels and bunkers beneath the Azovstal steelworks, and they have repeatedly refused to surrender. Ukraine has said a few hundred civilians were also trapped there, and fears for their safety have increased as the battle has grown fiercer in recent days.
“Our colleagues are currently on the ground,” U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said of the latest evacuation effort. “We are in an extremely delicate phase of this operation, working in close coordination with both the Ukrainian authorities and the Russian authorities.
He declined to share details “for the sake of the safety of those we’re trying to get out, and, of course, for our own staff, which are there.”
Kateryna Prokopenko, whose husband, Denys Prokopenko, commands the Azov Regiment troops inside the plant, issued a desperate plea to save the fighters. She said they’d be willing to go to a third country to wait out the war but would never surrender to Russia because that would mean “filtration camps, prison, torture, and death.”
If nothing is done to save her husband and his men, they will “stand to the end without surrender,” she told The Associated Press on Friday as she and relatives of some of the other members of the regiment drove from Italy to Poland.
It could takes days to know whether the latest U.N. effort to evacuate civilians succeeded, since people escaping Mariupol typically have to pass through contested areas and many checkpoints before reaching relative safety in the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia, about 140 miles (230 kilometers) to the northwest.
Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said Friday on the Telegram messaging app that another “complex operation to evacuate people from Mariupol and Azovstal” was conducted and that nearly 500 civilians were rescued. Two previous evacuations negotiated by the U.N. and the Red Cross brought roughly 500 people from the steel plant and elsewhere in Mariupol. It wasn’t clear if Yermak was saying more people had since been rescued.
Some of the plant’s evacuees spoke to the AP about the horrors of being surrounded by death in the moldy, underground bunker with little food and water, poor medical care and diminishing hope. Some said they felt guilty for leaving others behind.
“People literally rot like our jackets did,” said 31-year-old Serhii Kuzmenko, who fled along with his wife, 8-year-old daughter and four others from their bunker, where 30 others were left behind. “They need our help badly. We need to get them out.”
Fighters defending the plant said Friday on Telegram that Russian troops fired on an evacuation vehicle on the plant’s grounds. They said the car was moving toward civilians when it was hit by shelling, and that one soldier was killed and six were wounded.
Moscow didn’t immediately acknowledge renewed fighting there Friday.
Russia took control of Mariupol, aside from the steel plant, after bombarding it for two months. Ahead of Victory Day, which marks the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany, municipal workers and volunteers cleaned up what remains of the city, which had a prewar population of over 400,000 but where perhaps 100,000 civilians remain with little food, water, electricity or heat. Bulldozers scooped up debris and people swept streets against a backdrop of hollowed-out buildings, workers repaired a model of a warship, and Russian flags were hoisted on utility poles.
The fall of Mariupol would deprive Ukraine of a vital port, allow Russia to establish a land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014, and free up troops to fight elsewhere in the Donbas, the eastern industrial region that the Kremlin says is now its chief objective. Its capture also holds symbolic value since the city has been the scene of some of the worst suffering of the war and a surprisingly fierce resistance.
Asked whether Russia would soon take full control of Mariupol, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Mariupol will never fall. I’m not talking about heroism or anything.”
“It is already devastated,” he told a meeting at London’s Chatham House think tank. He also said he remains open to negotiations with Russia, but repeated that Moscow must withdraw its forces.
While they pounded away at the plant, Russian forces struggled to make significant gains elsewhere, 10 weeks into a devastating war that has killed thousands of people, forced millions to flee the country and flattened large swaths of cities.
Ukrainian officials warned residents to be vigilant and heed air raid warnings, saying the risk of massive shelling had increased with Victory Day approaching. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said authorities would reinforce street patrols in the capital.
The Ukrainian military’s general staff said Friday that its forces repelled 11 attacks in the Donbas and destroyed tanks and armored vehicles, further frustrating Putin’s ambitions after his abortive attempt to seize Kyiv. Russia gave no immediate acknowledgement of those losses.
The British Defense Ministry said Russia may be struggling to execute its plan in the Donbas partly because it’s bogged down at the plant in Mariupol. The fighting at the plant “has come at personnel, equipment and munitions cost to Russia,” it said. “Whilst Ukrainian resistance continues in Avozstal, Russian losses will continue to build and frustrate their operational plans in southern Donbas.”
The Ukrainian army also said it made progress in the northeastern Kharkiv region, recapturing five villages and part of a sixth.
In other developments:
— A Ukrainian army brigade said it used an American Switchblade “suicide” drone against Russian forces in what was likely Ukraine’s first recorded use of such weapon in combat.
— The Ukrainian governor of the eastern Luhansk region said more than 3,500 residents of the city of Kreminna found themselves in Russian-controlled territory as Russian forces were trying to cross the Seversky Donets River. Serhiy Haidai accused Russian troops of “terrorizing” the residents, “from checking phones to forcibly disappearing Ukrainian patriots.” His statements could not be immediately verified.
— The small village of Nekhoteevk, in Russia’s southern Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, was being evacuated Friday due to shelling from Ukrainian territory, according to the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov. His claims couldn’t be immediately verified.
UK condemned Rwanda for abuses months before signing deal
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LONDON - Britain condemned Rwanda for failing to investigate human rights violations just months before Boris Johnson agreed to deport thousands of asylum seekers there, according to the Independent.
A new multi-million-pound deal will see people seeking sanctuary in the UK flown 4,000 miles away to have their asylum claims processed by the east African country, in what the home secretary branded a “world-leading migration partnership”.
The British government has unveiled a £1.4 billion plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda while their applications are processed by the Home Office, a move that has already been described as “cruel and nasty” by the Refugee Council, “unworkable, unethical and extortionate” by shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper and “evil” by Ian Blackford of the Scottish National Party.
Announcing the plans on Thursday, the prime minister lauded Rwanda as “one of the safest countries in the world”, adding that it is “globally recognised for its record of welcoming and integrating migrants”.
But it has emerged that just 10 months before the agreement was signed, the UK raised alarm about a failure by authorities in Rwanda to properly investigate alleged human rights abuses and to protect and support victims of trafficking.
A statement by the UK’s international ambassador for human rights Rita French in July 2021 expressed “regret” that Rwanda was not conducting “transparent, credible and independent investigations into allegations of human rights violations including deaths in custody and torture”.
She added: “We were disappointed that Rwanda did not support the UK recommendation to screen, identify and provide support to trafficking victims, including those held in government transit centres.”
Britain itself has granted protection to dozens of Rwandans over the past decade, with 69 given asylum or humanitarian protection between 2011 and 2021.
Revealing details of the plans from the Rwandan capital Kigali on Thursday, Priti Patel said the deal would enable deportees who are granted asylum in Rwanda to “build their lives” in the country.
She said the plan, which will see the UK pay Rwanda £120 million plus the cost of flights and accommodation, would “help break the people smugglers’ business model and prevent loss of life while ensuring protection for the genuinely vulnerable”.
But experts have said it is “ludicrous” to think that asylum seekers will be able to build their lives in the country, citing human rights abuses and economic issues, and warned that many deportees would likely leave immediately and make their way back to Europe.
Rwanda is already home to more than 127,000 refugees, mainly from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, most of whom are in refugee camps and are not allowed to work.
With a late surge, can socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon revive the French left?
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By Basma El Atti, The New Arab, 05 April, 2022
A survivor of the fall of the French left has emerged from the ruins to have a shot at the upcoming presidential election: Jean-Luc Mélenchon has become France’s leading left-wing candidate after steadily rising in the polls and is now eyeing the Elysée.
Likening himself to a tortoise, the veteran leftist and leader of the France Unbowed party hopes that his third candidacy will see his slow and steady rise to win the presidential race.
A recent surge in the polls means Mélenchon is currently in third place, just a handful of points behind far-right Le Pen while centrist incumbent Macron leads the bid. If Mélenchon can make it through, he would end the decade-long absence of leftist candidates from the second round of the French election.
Known as France’s Bernie Sanders, the 70-year-old politician shares many factors with his American counterpart. Both are willingly impulsive, sanguine and do not shy away from debating his competitors. Both also find their dominant support base among younger voters.
Mélenchon’s confidence as an orator, erudition and dry sense of humour are seen by his supporters as a display of his authenticity.
Unlike the far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, who dismisses his Algerian roots, Mélonchon is very proud of the years he spent in the Maghreb. Born in Tangier, the veteran politician witnessed in his early childhood Morocco’s struggle towards independence from French colonisation - a struggle he said inspired his political journey.
“My first demonstration was when I was 5 years old. I had come across a demonstration with my father and my uncle, which demanded the return of Mohammed V [the king of Morocco who was exiled at the time]. I went home and was very happy to have seen those brave men, I started to go around the table shouting ‘Return to us, Mohammed Ben Youssef’. My first demonstration was for the independence of Morocco and the return of the King of Morocco to his kingdom,” said Mélenchon during his campaign in March 2022.
Mélenchon says that his time in Tangier as well as his travels to Latin America have inspired him to embrace the diversity of races and religions in one country. “I have never suffered from the panic fears and racist anxieties that overwhelm others,” he said.
Mélenchon began his political career with the National Union of Students of France before joining the Socialist Party in the 1970s until 2008, when he left after accusing it of leaning towards the centre.
In 2016, Mélenchon launched his eco-socialist party La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), combining radical left-wing ideas, such as jobs for all and increasing taxes on the rich, with green-tinged proposals, including investing in green energy and banning pesticides.
His progressive campaign has proved successful with young people across the country before: Mélenchon won more 18-25 year-old votes in 2017 than either of the candidates ahead of him. He hopes to make a similar case to French youth this year.
Rap performances before his speeches, a video game of Mélenchon fighting corruption, and a Twitch channel to stream his ideas to the gaming community are bringing his perspective of “another world is possible” closer to his Gen Z voting base, particularly those from immigrant, particularly African, backgrounds.
“Honest” and “fair” is how Youssef, a Moroccan-French university student, describes the candidate’s programme.
“Taxing the rich, ensuring free higher education, unlike Macron, sound to me like the most honest and logical ideas we need in France right now. This is why I support Mélenchon,” Youssef, who at the age of 20 is navigating his first election as a voter, told The New Arab.
Mélenchon has vowed to lower the legal retirement age from 62 to 60, introduce a monthly minimum wage of 1,400 euros, and reintroduce a wealth tax as well as raise taxes on the rich.
For the young, Mélenchon wants to lower the voting age to 16, grant 1000 euros to students per month to prevent debt and introduce a form of paid civic service for people under 25-year-old.
Estimated at 3 million people, about 5-6% of the total electorate, more than a third of French people from an African background intend to vote for Mélenchon, while a quarter plan to vote for president Macron for a second term. The rest of the candidates have failed to garner support.
“It's traditional. Families from African roots or mixed families tend to support the left wing in the presidential elections, considering their pr0gressive programs towards diversity. But the division of the left camp is what divides these votes,” explained the Morocco-based political expert Olivier Deaux to The New Arab.
"Estimated at 3 million people, about 5-6% of the total electorate, more than a third of French people from an African background intend to vote for Mélenchon"
“It is time to put an end to imperialism, neocolonialism, paternalism,” Mélenchon said during his visit to Burkina Faso in 2021, emphasising that his goal as president would be "building a relationship with Africa based on the sovereignty of the peoples”.
Mélenchon has vowed to facilitate access to visas, regularise workers and institute a ten-year residence permit, and believes that minority groups are an integral component of France’s future.
The candidate has proposed that the African countries of the Franc zone be exclusively in control of their currency. He also advocates for the cancellation of debts of certain African countries which, according to him, are contracted by dictatorships to enrich their camp clinging to power.
“His opinions regarding Africa are well-established. He sounds like the only candidate who does not picture Africa as a source of danger as the other candidates do," said Ibragih, a Ghanaian student living in France.
Mélenchon is also determined to replace the country’s constitution, which gives the president a strong upper hand, with a new parliamentary system. He has promised also to fight against sexism and violence against women and to overhaul France’s police force.
Yet, he remains a dividing figure even among left-wing supporters. Pushing to exit NATO and end the nuclear programme in France are seen as an aggressive approach for many of the admirers of his socially-minded policies.
In addition, his aggressive remarks towards Kyiv in the past are casting a shadow on the candidate’s progressive campaign amid international empathy with Ukraine following the Russian invasion.
Mélenchon, who once supported the annexation of Crimea as legitimate, voiced his change of heart towards Ukraine after Putin’s offensive in February, as he hammered the slogan "No to war! No to Putin’s war!” in his 2022 campaign in an attempt to reverse the past position that may cost him dearly.
Just a few days away from the first round of voting on April 10, Mélenchon third-place position seems secure with 15% of the vote, but securing a final victory still seems far-off.
However, reaching the run-off against Macron and becoming the first leftist candidate to reach the second round since 2021 looks increasingly like a highly possible scenario, explained French election expert Charles Deau.
"Just a few days away from the first round of voting on April 10, Mélenchon third-place position seems secure with 15% of the vote, but securing a final victory still seems far-off"
“I believe that Mélenchon will make it to the second tour. Considering the trauma of the French presidential election in 2002, I think the leftist supporters will rally behind Mélenchon, opting for the ‘useful vote’,” Deau told The New Arab.
In the first round of the 2002 presidential election, the Prime Minister and socialist candidate Lionel Jospin was eliminated to everyone's surprise and deprived of a confrontation in the second round against the outgoing right-president Jacques Chirac.
Jospin’s elimination, which was due to a crowded and fractured left movement where votes were split among several candidates, serves as a traumatic memory that forced French voters to choose between two right candidates. Left-leaning voters will be determined to vote strategically to avoid a repeat of this scenario.
“In a two-round election, where only two candidates are selected for the second round, the useful vote consists of not wasting your vote on a candidate who one imagines has no chance of winning or reaching the second round, even if it is the one they prefer. And in this case that is Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” explained Deaux.
Still, Deaux believes that socially-minded voters will most likely overcome their divisions and rally behind Mélenchon, as he is the only leftist in the camp who is capable of going “tête-à-tête” against his right-wing competitors and Macron.
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