Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, report

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 09 June 2022

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LONDON - Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline, according to the Independent on Thursday.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.

This difference in numbers between the two sides is being revealed as both Kyiv and Moscow hold highly-publicised trials of prisoners of war.

Ukrainian courts in Kyiv and near Kharkiv have convicted Russian soldiers on war crimes charges, handing out lengthy sentences. Iryna Venediktova, the country’s prosecutor general, said on Wednesday she has filed eight more cases.

Two Britons, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were captured serving with Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are on trial in the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, where prosecutors say they face the death penalty for “terrorism” and being “mercenaries”.

Russian state media announced on Wednesday that more than 1,000 Mariupol prisoners have been transferred to Russia for “investigation.” Politicians in Moscow and the separatist republics have threatened to carry out “Nuremberg-type” trials of the Azov prisoners who they accuse of being neo-Nazis.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, making a visit to the frontline in Donbas on Monday, demanded the Kremlin hand over the Mariupol prisoners. Negotiations are ongoing, he said, but “they are unfortunately in the hands of the Russian Federation, which cannot be trusted”.

The intelligence report says: “Russians insist on a one-to-one prisoner exchange. This means that under the status quo, 4,500 Ukrainian prisoners may be in Russian jails until there is a peace deal. Moscow is likely to use this as a lever to internally destabilise Ukraine unless there is social protection for their families and clear communications.”

The assessment was compiled before the announcement by the British government that it will supply a small number of M270 multiple-launch rocket systems, but after the reported US supply of Himars truck-based mobility rocket systems.

Britain is sending only three of the systems for the time being, and Washington has sent four. Ukrainian officials say they need much more to halt the Russian advance, let alone reclaim lost territory, and that it will take time to deploy the systems to the frontline while the Kremlin continues its fierce offensive in the Donbas.

Reporting on the ground backs up claims of rising Ukrainian losses due to Russian firepower. The Independent last week witnessed losses being inflicted on the Ukrainian military and the lack of long-range firepower to fight back; one soldier interviewed in Lysychansk has since been killed and another three injured.

The intelligence report states: “It is plain that a conventional war cannot be won if your side has several times fewer weapons, your weapons hit the enemy at a shorter distance and you have significantly less ammunition than the enemy.”

It continues: “The tactical situation on the Eastern front is as follows… the Ukrainian side has almost completely run out of stocks of missiles for MLRS of Smerch and Uragan types, which made it possible to effectively deter Russian offensives in the first months of the war at distances of [37 to 50 miles].

“Today, the maximum range of fire of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is [15.5 miles]. This is the range at which 152/155mm calibre artillery and the Grad MLRS units remaining in service can fire.”

The assessment warns that the Russians are fully aware that a relatively small number of Western weapons have been sent and the delivery into combat positions is slow.

It stresses that Javelin and NLAW anti-tank systems supplied by the US and UK have proved effective in the battlefields around Kyiv and Kharkiv and remain so in the Donbas. Switchblade attack drones have also inflicted significant damage on the Russians.

Johnson to face vote of no confidence today after Tory MPs turn on PM

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 06 June 2022

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LONDON - Boris Johnson will face a vote of no confidence today after at least 54 Conservative MPs called on him to resign.

The threshold of 15% of Tory MPs have now written to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, saying they no longer have confidence in their leader.

The vote will take place in the House of Commons between 6pm and 8pm later on Monday.

At least 180 Tory MPs will need to turn on their leader for him to be removed - although simply passing the vote will not be indicative of Johnson's safety as PM.

Brady said the prime minister was informed on Sunday night after some MPs post-dated their letters until after the Queen's Platinum Jubilee celebrations were over.

He said Johnson had agreed that the vote should take place as soon as possible, but refused to confirm how many letters had been received.

The prime minister has been teetering on the edge of a vote for some weeks, sparked in main by the Partygate scandal that saw the PM fined for attending a party in Downing Street, while the UK was subject to stringent lockdown rules.

Despite issuing a grovelling apology following the publication of the damning Sue Gray report, Johnson has not managed to secure the support of enough of his own party to stave off a vote.

Polling in recent weeks has also made desperate reading in terms of Johnson's personal popularity.

This was most publicly demonstrated on Friday when he was booed by a significant section of the crowd during his arrival at a thanksgiving service for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee at St Paul’s Cathedral.

Downing Street said Johnson “welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs”, with a No 10 spokeswoman adding that Monday night’s secret ballot was “a chance to end months of speculation and allow the Government to draw a line and move on”.

A number of MPs have already expressed public support for Johnson including multiple ministers such as Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Nadine Dorries.

However, the criticism from the many backbenchers who have criticised his leadership skills and policy priorities has been stark.

On Monday, shortly before the no-confidence vote was confirmed, a long-standing ally of 15 years issued a devastating letter of criticism, which serves to highlight the anger felt by many MPs.

Former Treasury minister Jesse Norman described some of Johnson's high-profile policies as “deeply questionable” and said there were no circumstances in which he could serve in a government led by him.

In his letter to the PM, Norman warned that any breach of the Northern Irish protocol would be “economically very damaging, politically foolhardy and almost certainly illegal”.

“You are the leader of the Conservative and Unionist party, yet you are putting the Union itself gravely at risk,” he said.

He said the government’s Rwanda policy was “ugly, likely to be counterproductive and of doubtful legality” and that plans to privatise Channel 4 were “unnecessary and provocative”.

What happens next?

At least 50% of Tory MPs must vote “no confidence” for the prime minister to lose.

But even if Johnson survives the vote on Monday evening, his leadership could be fatally undermined if a significant number of MPs vote against him.

If Johnson is voted out or forced to resign, a leadership contest to replace him as the head of the Tory Party would take place – although he is likely to remain in post as PM until a successor is in place.

The contest takes place in two stages.

In the first stage, Conservative MPs put themselves forward as candidates.

All Tory MPs then vote in a series of rounds to reduce the number of candidates until only two remain.

The second stage of the contest sees the two remaining candidates put to a vote of Conservative Party members.

The photo that says it all about partygate

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Written by northsouth

Category: Europe

Published: 23 May 2022

Hits: 743

LONDON - The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson drank alcohol with aides at a leaving party in November 2020 while Britain was under Covid lockdown, leaked photographs show.

ITV News obtained four pictures showing the Prime Minister with a glass in his hand as he stood by a table littered with bottles of wine.

The second national lockdown had been imposed on the nation eight days before the gathering. Angela Rayner, deputy leader of the Labour Party, said the images mean there is "no doubt" that he lied when he said he was unaware of rule-breaking in No 10 during the pandemic.

Boris Johnson may have thought the publication of the Sue Gray report was the biggest headache he faced this week, but the leaked pictures of him raising a glass under Covid restrictions may prove worse.