GENEVA – The latest Chief Economists Outlook released today presents a growing sense of cautious optimism about the global economy in 2024. More than eight in ten chief economists expect the global economy to either strengthen or remain stable this year – nearly double the proportion in the previous report. The share of those predicting a downturn in global conditions declined from 56% in January to 17%.
Global Outlook
- 82% of chief economists expect the global economy to remain stable or strengthen this year – almost twice as many as in late 2023
- Over two-thirds predict a sustained rebound of global growth, driven by technological transformation, artificial intelligence and the green transition
- There is near-unanimity that geopolitics and domestic politics will drive economic volatility this year
But geopolitical and domestic political tensions cloud the horizon. Some 97% of respondents anticipate that geopolitics will contribute to global economic volatility this year. A further 83% said domestic politics will be a source of volatility in 2024, a year when nearly half the world's population is voting.
“The latest Chief Economists Outlook points to welcome but tentative signs of improvement in the global economic climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “This underscores the increasingly complex landscape that leaders are navigating. There is an urgent need for policy-making that not only looks to revive the engines of the global economy but also seeks to put in place the foundations of more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”
Regional variations
Growth expectations have improved, though unevenly, across the globe. The survey reveals a significant boost in the outlook for the United States, where nearly all chief economists (97%) now expect moderate to strong growth this year, up from 59% in January.
Asian economies also appear robust, with all respondents projecting at least moderate growth in the South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions. Expectations for China are slightly less optimistic, with three-quarters expecting moderate growth and only 4% predicting strong growth this year.
By contrast, the outlook for Europe remains gloomy, with nearly 70% of economists predicting weak growth for the remainder of 2024. Other regions are expected to experience broadly moderate growth, with a slight improvement since the previous survey.
The May 2024 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, and the implications of recent geopolitical and domestic political developments. This series of reports draws on the individual and collective perspectives of a group of leading chief economists through consultations with the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Community and a regular Chief Economists Survey.
For the full report, visit: https://www.weforum.org/publications/chief-economists-outlook-may-2024/
